The Ibovespa suffered its largest percentage drop since December 2025, closing Tuesday's session down 3.28% at 183,104.87 points. The move was triggered by a wave of risk aversion that swept global markets in response to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, now in its fourth day without any signs of de-escalation.
At its intraday low, Brazil's main stock index touched 180,518.33 points before a partial recovery toward the end of the session. At its high, the Ibovespa had reached 189,602.38 points during the early trading hours. Financial volume was significant, totaling BRL 46.8 billion — well above the year's daily average of BRL 34.6 billion — highlighting the intensity of position liquidation by institutional and foreign investors.
Despite the sharp correction, the Ibovespa still accumulates a 13.64% gain in 2026, having momentarily surpassed the 192,000-point mark at its annual peak recorded in February. The decline is therefore viewed by analysts more as profit-taking amplified by the external environment than as a trend reversal.
The commercial dollar followed the flight-to-safety movement, closing up 1.91% at BRL 5.2639. Even with the day's appreciation, the US currency still accumulates a 4.10% decline for the year, reflecting the interest rate differential favoring the real and positive foreign investment flows into the Brazilian market during the first months of 2026.
Otávio Araújo, analyst at Zero Markets Brasil, explained that "what we are seeing is a classic flight to assets considered safer," referring to the capital migration from emerging markets to US Treasury bonds and gold. Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed up 4.7%, accumulating gains of more than 11% over two days, influenced by Iranian threats to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passes.
On the domestic front, the impact of external stress compounds uncertainties about the government's fiscal policy management. Recent Focus Bulletin data showed that inflation projections for 2026 jumped to 4.1%, pressured by the rising dollar and higher petroleum-derived fuel prices. The year-end Selic rate expectation was revised from 12% to 12.25%, incorporating the possibility that the Central Bank may adopt a more cautious pace of rate cuts given the adverse external environment.
Market operators warn that volatility is expected to remain elevated in the coming days until there is clarity on the Middle East conflict's developments and their impacts on global energy supply chains.